Baldur’s Gate 3 – Probability Analysis

Probability Analysis

Chance to roll at least Target x:

TargetDisadv.d20Advantage
1100%100%100%
290.25%95%99.75%
381.00%90%99.00%
472.25%85%97.75%
564.00%80%96.00%
656.25%75%93.75%
749.00%70%91.00%
842.25%65%87.75%
936.00%60%87.75%
1030.25%55%79.75%
1125.00%50%75.00%
1220.25%45%69.75%
1316.00%40%64.00%
1412.25%35%57.75%
159.00%30%51.00%
166.25%25%43.75%
174.00%20%36.00%
182.25%15%27.75%
191.00%10%19.00%
200.25%5%9.75%
  • Every additional number of the die translates to a 5% probability.
  • The probability of rolling at least a 15 with disadvantage is 9, with a normal d20 is 30% and with advantage 51%.
  • The effect is more pronounced the closer to the middle you get(+/-25% at 50%, which translates to a +/-5 modifier), but in general you should try to get advantage as much as possible and avoid disadvantage.
Helena Stamatina
About Helena Stamatina 2707 Articles
My first game was Naughty Dog’s Crash Bandicoot (PlayStation) back in 1996. And since then gaming has been my main hobby. I turned my passion for gaming into a job by starting my first geek blog in 2009. When I’m not working on the site, I play mostly on my PlayStation. But I also love outdoor activities and especially skiing.

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