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GTA 5 - Horse Betting Guide with Statistical Analysis (GTA Online)

Created by Wyntflex   ::   Dec 2, 2019    


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GTA Online Horse Betting Guide With Statistical Analysis - 101 Betting Rounds Analysed and Conclusions. How To Increase Your Chances of Winning on Horse Betting In GTA Online.

Intro



  • I played and recorded the results of 101 rounds of horse betting in Inside Tracks (I wanted to do only 100, so percentages would looked nicer, but I accidentally started another one so I included that one too for extra data.)
  • All rounds were Single Events.
  • I took breaks every 15-20 Races.
  • No strategy was used during the recording of this data.
  • I selected Horse 1 each time, and went for Max Bet ($10,000).
  • I skipped races where Horse 1 had Even Odds.
  • I also placed bets on horses which I knew will not win to eliminate personal bias in statistics.



Data



The Table on the left holds the Odds Number (X/1) of each Horse (H 1-2-3-4-5-6) in each round. Yellow colored cell means it won.

The Table on the right is the winner of each race, Name of the Horse, the odds of the Horse, and which number it had during the race (1-6).

In between the 2 tables I marked when I decided to take a break from betting. It was done to see if leaving the betting for a few minutes affects the result of the following rounds or not.



Lucky Horses



This is a sum of how many times each horse has won. It is clear that there are specific horses which win more than others (other than it's odds).

It has to be noted though that it is RNG (Random Number Generated with an added algorithm that weighs in the odds number) meaning the winners are randomized, there is no way to tell exactly which horse is going to win.

However specific horses do indeed win more than others. I observed this even outside of this experiment when I'm just playing for fun.

The Luckiest and Most Profitable Horses To Bet On (Odds / Wins / Winnings):

Group 1 (Lower Winnings Per Race - Very Likely To Win)

  • Lonely Stepbrother (3/1 - 5 Wins - $200,000)
  • Crackers And Please (3/1 - 4 Wins - $160,000)
  • Dancin Shoes (5/1 - 4 Wins - $240,000)
  • Omens And Ice (3/1 - 4 Wins - $160,000)
  • Bouncy Blessed (5/1 - 3 Wins - $180,000)
  • Creepy Dentist (7/1 - 3 Wins - $240,000)
  • Dexie Runner (6/1 - 3 Wins - $210,000)
  • Dr Deez Reins (5/1 - 3 Wins - $180,000)
  • Los Santos Savior (5/1 - 3 Wins - $180,000)

Group 2 (Medium Winnings Per Race - Not Likely To Win)

  • Sizzurp (13/1 - 2 Wins - $280,000)
  • Ghost Dank (10/1 - 2 Wins - $220,000)
  • Tenpenny (10/1 - 2 Wins - $220,000)

Group 3 (Very High Winnings - Extremely Unlikely To Win)

  • Bad Egg (29/1 - 1 Wins - $300,000)
  • Sir Scrambled (26/1 - 1 Wins - $270,000)
  • Glass or Tina (23/1 - 1 Wins - $240,000)
  • Miss Mary John (22/1 - 1 Wins - $230,000)



Odds



The table below shows all the available odds and how likely they are to win. 2/1, 3/1, and 5/1 are the most likely to win.

It's more profitable to play 5/1 and 3/1, however you are more likely to win playing 2/1.

An Interesting Observation:

Taking a look on odds 8/1 and up, 10/1 and 13/1 had noticeably higher win rates. It's also strange that 8/1 and up there were rarely any odds number where there were 2 or more winners besides these. 10/1 had 5 wins, and out of those, 4 was won by 2 Horses, Tenpenny and Ghost Dank, both won 2 times each. 13/1 had 3 wins and Sizzurp won 2 of those.



Horse Numbers



Horse 1 and Horse 2 is the most likely to win. Picking Horse 1 means more wins overall, but not that much, so either can be chosen.

I recommend not alternating between horses, but rather sticking with either Horse 1 or Horse 2. The reason is because any time you chose another, the other one has almost just as much possibility of winning, and you may pick the wrong one round after round. However if you pick one from the 2 and stay with it, it will win eventually.



Conclusions



Conclusions drawn from the data recorded:

  • You are more likely to win with odds 2/1 (22.8%), 3/1 (17.8%), and 5/1 (15.8%).
  • Playing 5/1 is more profitable, followed by 3/1, and 2/1.
  • You are more likely to win picking Horse Number 1 (34.7%), 2 (31.7%), and 3 (15.8%).
  • There are horses which most likely perform better than the rest. However some can be a result of random occurrence. You can use the Lucky Horse list to increase your chances.
  • If 3 or more horses appear in the next round from the last one, the winner of the last round will most likely win.
  • (Personal Opinion) Taking a break of a few minutes from the betting affects the winning pattern of the next rounds. I took a longer break at Round 40, an almost half hour break, and after coming back my Win/Lose ratio dropped significantly. But just before that, Round 21 to 39 my Win/Lose Ratio was very high.
  • Bonus (off data) Interesting Observation: If your Horse gains a huge lead at the start and it falls back just before reaching the middle off the track, your horse will most likely gain a huge lead suddenly in the second half of the race and win.

Strategy:

The most efficient way to play is always picking either Horse 1 or Horse 2. Alternating between them can be a good strategy too by picking the luckier horse, however there's always a chance of picking the wrong one, so staying with only one horse might be a better idea because it will win eventually.

Even though 2/1 wins more than 3/1 and 5/1, it brings in less money overall. The most profitable odd to play is 5/1, followed by 3/1, and then 2/1.

Use the Lucky Horse list, or memorize the names of the horses which win more frequently and pick them over others.

To sum it up in short:

Go with Horse Number 1 with 5/1 or 3/1 odds, and pick horses which are known to win more. If you get a bad horse, just close the betting screen and then reenter it (you don't have to stand up). However if you do this frequently the game will kick you from the betting table for around 1-2 minutes, so make sure you wait 5-10 seconds between quitting and reentering the betting screen.

I have to note that I can't guarantee that by following this strategy you will absolutely profit, because the winners are randomized after all, however these are my statistics and observations. In my case it works, and I made 1.1 Million chips in less than 2 days doing this.

If you are on a losing streak (lost 5 times in a row or more), then take a break, walk around, play a Diamond Miner, or a Three Card Poker, or just do something in real life. It's not worth getting frustrated over a game.

Also, DO NOT put all your money on bettings! I repeat DO NOT put all your money buying chips so you can bet all of it on Horse Racing! This is important!

You want to have spare money you can afford to lose (around $200,000-$300,000 is good) and have at least one or two businesses (Preferably Bunker, Nightclub, or MC, so it works in the background while you do the betting)! The reason is because if you don't have a lot of money and you convert all of it to chips then you might go broke if you have a bad streak, and it's also safer and more profitable to do this alongside with other sources of income!

Good Luck Betting!



Game:   GTA 5
Created by Wyntflex.